Laagri vs Kuressaare Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Laagri
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Kuressaare
Kick-off 16:00 Stadium Laagri kunstmurustaadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Laagri opened at -0.25 against Kuressaare in the Meistriliiga. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
Laagri -0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.38 / 1.22
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Laagri -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Kuressaare than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Kuressaare +0.25
@ 2.72
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.88
Price Advantage
+44.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:15
Opening
-0.25
12:27
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
15:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.67 / 2.74 -0.25 1.73 / 2.62 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.83 / 2.72 -0.25 1.83 / 2.72 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 -0.25 1.82 / 2.68 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.68 / 2.74 -0.25 1.74 / 2.62 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.61 / 2.26 -0.25 1.61 / 2.26 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.33 7.90
-1.50 3.42 6.05
-1.25 3.08 5.65
-1.00 2.78 5.20
-0.75 2.24 3.68
-0.25 1.74 2.62
0 1.52 2.29
+0.25 1.38 1.92
+0.75 1.20 1.52
+1.00 1.10 1.34
+1.25 1.08 1.28
+1.50 1.06 1.23
+1.75 1.02 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 5.90
-1.25 3.30 5.75
-1.00 2.85 5.25
-0.75 2.35 3.70
-0.50 2.08 3.00
-0.25 1.82 2.68
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.45 1.98
+0.50 1.38 1.72
+0.75 1.26 1.58
+1.00 1.16 1.40
+1.25 1.14 1.32
+1.50 1.13 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.61 2.26
0 1.42 2.02
+0.25 1.32 1.73

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.33 7.90
-1.50 3.42 6.05
-1.25 3.08 5.65
-1.00 2.78 5.20
-0.75 2.24 3.68
-0.25 1.73 2.62
0 1.52 2.29
+0.25 1.38 1.90
+0.75 1.20 1.52
+1.00 1.10 1.34
+1.25 1.08 1.28
+1.50 1.06 1.23
+1.75 1.02 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.05 3.06
-0.25 1.83 2.72
0 1.56 2.39
+0.25 1.43 2.00
+0.50 1.35 1.76
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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