Toronto II vs Chattanooga Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Toronto II
Final Score
2 – 2
(HT 1-1)
Chattanooga
Kick-off 23:00 Stadium York Lions Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Toronto II opened at -0.25 against Chattanooga in the MLS Next Pro. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.30 / 1.30
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Toronto II -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Chattanooga than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Toronto II -0.25
@ 2.85
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.36
Price Advantage
+20.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
20:34
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.74 / 1.66 -0.25 2.74 / 1.66 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.70 / 1.76 -0.50 2.66 / 1.90 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.85 / 1.72 -0.25 2.85 / 1.72 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.75 / 1.68 -0.25 2.53 / 1.65 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 3.30
-1.25 5.90 3.00
-1.00 5.75 2.68
-0.75 3.90 2.20
-0.50 3.30 1.98
-0.25 2.85 1.72
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.08 1.40
+0.50 1.82 1.32
+0.75 1.65 1.24
+1.00 1.45 1.14
+1.25 1.38 1.13
+1.50 1.32 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.53 1.65
0 2.57 1.43
+0.25 2.07 1.44

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.90 4.25
-1.50 6.70 3.34
-1.25 6.25 3.04
-1.00 5.75 2.66
-0.75 3.92 2.14
-0.25 2.74 1.66
0 2.45 1.47
+0.25 1.99 1.35
+0.75 1.57 1.18
+1.00 1.37 1.07
+1.25 1.29 1.06
+1.50 1.24 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.66 1.90
-0.25 2.82 1.68
0 2.50 1.47
+0.25 2.10 1.38
+0.50 1.87 1.42
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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