Recoleta vs Magallanes Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Recoleta
Oct 10, 2026 - 15:30
1.25 1.35
Magallanes
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
3 / 6 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Recoleta opened at 0 against Magallanes in the Primera B. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Recoleta 0
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Magallanes than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Magallanes 0
@ 2.06
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.88
Price Advantage
+9.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.96 / 2.30 -0.25 1.96 / 2.30 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.75 / 2.06 0 1.75 / 2.06 — 0
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 0 1.78 / 2.02 — 0
1xBet 0 1.91 / 1.86 -0.25 1.98 / 2.30 — -0.25
Betano -0.50 2.35 / 2.75 -0.50 2.35 / 2.75 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.95 / 2.41 0 1.71 / 1.98 — +0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
xG 1.25 / 1.35 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.75
Recoleta @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.14
Recoleta @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.75 vs 2.14
Market price is 18.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.30 9.70
-1.75 5.60 7.00
-1.50 4.40 5.40
-1.25 3.98 5.00
-1.00 3.50 4.60
-0.75 2.66 3.20
-0.25 1.98 2.30
0 1.69 1.99
+0.25 1.49 1.70
+0.75 1.26 1.37
+1.00 1.13 1.22
+1.25 1.10 1.17
+1.50 1.09 1.14
+1.75 1.04 1.08

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.78 2.02

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.31 2.66
-0.25 2.01 2.33
0 1.71 1.98
+0.25 1.51 1.69
+0.50 1.40 1.52

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.35 2.75
+0.50 1.44 1.57

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.30 8.90
-1.75 5.60 7.00
-1.50 4.40 5.40
-1.25 3.98 5.00
-1.00 3.50 4.60
-0.75 2.66 3.20
-0.25 1.96 2.30
0 1.69 1.99
+0.25 1.49 1.68
+0.75 1.26 1.37
+1.00 1.13 1.22
+1.25 1.10 1.17
+1.50 1.09 1.14
+1.75 1.04 1.08

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.78 3.33
-0.50 2.32 2.70
-0.25 2.05 2.39
0 1.75 2.06
+0.25 1.55 1.74
+0.50 1.42 1.56
+0.75 1.29 1.40
Primary Bets
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