D. Puerto Montt vs San Luis Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

D. Puerto Montt
Oct 12, 2026 - 15:30
1.38 1.22
San Luis
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

D. Puerto Montt opened at -0.25 against San Luis in the Primera B. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
D. Puerto Montt -0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
D. Puerto Montt -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward San Luis than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
D. Puerto Montt -0.25
@ 2.52
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.14
Price Advantage
+17.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.49 / 1.83 -0.25 2.49 / 1.83 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.63 / 1.88 -0.25 2.50 / 1.97 — 0
1xBet 0 1.93 / 1.81 -0.25 2.52 / 1.83 — -0.25
Betano -0.50 2.75 / 2.15 -0.50 2.75 / 2.20 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
xG 1.38 / 1.22 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.50
D. Puerto Montt @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.14
D. Puerto Montt @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.50 vs 2.14
Market price is 16.8% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.55 5.45
-1.50 6.45 4.20
-1.25 5.94 3.80
-1.00 5.45 3.34
-0.75 3.58 2.49
-0.25 2.52 1.83
0 2.17 1.58
+0.25 1.79 1.44
+0.75 1.42 1.21
+1.00 1.24 1.08
+1.25 1.19 1.07
+1.50 1.15 1.05

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.75 2.20
+0.50 1.65 1.44

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 5.45
-1.50 6.45 4.20
-1.25 5.95 3.80
-1.00 5.45 3.34
-0.75 3.58 2.49
-0.25 2.49 1.83
0 2.17 1.58
+0.25 1.79 1.42
+0.75 1.42 1.21
+1.00 1.24 1.08
+1.25 1.19 1.07
+1.50 1.15 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.84 2.24
-0.25 2.50 1.97
0 2.16 1.66
+0.25 1.82 1.49
+0.50 1.62 1.38
Primary Bets
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