Lindome vs Böljan Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Lindome
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 0-1)
Böljan
Kick-off 17:30

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Lindome opened at -0.25 against Böljan in the Division 2 - Västra Götaland. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.33 / 1.27
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Lindome -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Böljan than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Böljan +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+67.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
06:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.57 / 2.97 -0.25 1.57 / 2.97 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.68 / 3.00 -0.25 1.68 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.57 / 2.97 -0.25 1.57 / 2.97 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.88 6.85
-1.00 2.34 6.05
-0.75 1.96 4.00
-0.25 1.57 2.97
0 1.38 2.62
+0.25 1.30 2.14
+0.75 1.17 1.68
+1.00 1.06 1.50
+1.50 1.04 1.32

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.10 6.60
-1.25 2.75 6.25
-1.00 2.50 5.75
-0.75 2.10 4.10
-0.50 1.90 3.30
-0.25 1.68 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.15
+0.50 1.32 1.90
+0.75 1.23 1.70
+1.00 1.14 1.50
+1.25 1.12 1.42
+1.50 1.11 1.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.88 6.85
-1.00 2.34 6.05
-0.25 1.57 2.97
0 1.38 2.62
+0.25 1.30 2.14
+1.00 1.06 1.50
+1.50 1.04 1.32
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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