IFK Skövde vs Skara Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

IFK Skövde
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Skara
Kick-off 17:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

IFK Skövde opened at -0.25 against Skara in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
IFK Skövde -0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.41 / 1.19
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
IFK Skövde -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Skara than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Skara +0.25
@ 2.42
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.94
Price Advantage
+24.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:30
Opening
-0.25
16:24
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.85 / 2.35 -0.25 1.85 / 2.35 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.38 -0.25 1.95 / 2.40 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 2.42 -0.25 1.95 / 2.42 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.63 / 2.10 0 1.63 / 2.10 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 7.00
-1.50 3.80 5.50
-1.25 3.45 5.00
-1.00 3.10 4.50
-0.75 2.50 3.45
-0.50 2.15 2.75
-0.25 1.95 2.42
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.52 1.85
+0.50 1.42 1.68
+0.75 1.30 1.50
+1.00 1.19 1.35
+1.25 1.17 1.30
+1.50 1.15 1.25
+1.75 1.10 1.18

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.63 2.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.85 5.30
-1.00 3.08 4.50
-0.75 2.43 3.20
-0.25 1.85 2.35
0 1.63 2.08
+0.25 1.47 1.77
+0.75 1.26 1.44
+1.00 1.13 1.28
+1.50 1.09 1.18

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.20 2.71
-0.25 1.95 2.40
0 1.67 2.09
+0.25 1.49 1.79
+0.50 1.39 1.61
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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