Paju Citizen vs Busan I Park Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Paju Citizen
Oct 10, 2026 - 05:00
1.34 1.26
Busan I Park
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Paju Citizen opened at -0.25 against Busan I Park in the K League 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Paju Citizen -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Busan I Park than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Paju Citizen -0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.24
Price Advantage
+33.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.81 / 1.68 -0.25 2.81 / 1.68 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.00 / 1.75 -0.25 3.00 / 1.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.83 / 1.70 -0.25 2.83 / 1.70 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
xG 1.34 / 1.26 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.00
Paju Citizen @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.24
Paju Citizen @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.00 vs 2.24
Market price is 33.9% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 4.55
-1.50 7.10 3.58
-1.25 6.60 3.21
-1.00 6.15 2.81
-0.75 4.11 2.22
-0.25 2.83 1.70
0 2.44 1.46
+0.25 1.98 1.34
+0.75 1.54 1.16
+1.00 1.33 1.06
+1.25 1.26 1.05
+1.50 1.21 1.04

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.20 4.55
-1.50 7.10 3.58
-1.25 6.60 3.20
-1.00 6.15 2.81
-0.75 4.10 2.21
-0.25 2.81 1.68
0 2.44 1.46
+0.25 1.96 1.33
+0.75 1.53 1.16
+1.00 1.33 1.06
+1.25 1.26 1.05
+1.50 1.21 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.42 2.01
-0.25 3.00 1.75
0 2.58 1.50
+0.25 2.06 1.38
+0.50 1.80 1.30
Primary Bets
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