Suwon City FC vs Hwaseong Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Suwon City FC
Oct 09, 2026 - 05:00
1.39 1.21
Hwaseong
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Suwon City FC opened at -0.25 against Hwaseong in the K League 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
Suwon City FC -0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Suwon City FC -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Hwaseong than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Hwaseong +0.25
@ 2.91
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+53.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.71 / 2.70 -0.25 1.71 / 2.70 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.78 / 2.89 -0.25 1.78 / 2.91 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.75 / 3.00 -0.25 1.85 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.72 / 2.71 -0.25 1.72 / 2.71 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 2.80 -0.25 1.82 / 2.72 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.75 / 2.73 -0.25 1.75 / 2.73 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
xG 1.39 / 1.21 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.78
Suwon City FC @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.11
Suwon City FC @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.78 vs 2.11
Market price is 15.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.50 8.60
-1.50 3.50 6.60
-1.25 3.15 6.15
-1.00 2.78 5.70
-0.75 2.26 3.88
-0.25 1.72 2.71
0 1.49 2.36
+0.25 1.36 1.93
+0.75 1.18 1.53
+1.00 1.08 1.34
+1.25 1.06 1.27
+1.50 1.05 1.22

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.80 6.40
-1.25 3.45 5.90
-1.00 3.10 5.50
-0.75 2.42 3.80
-0.50 2.10 3.10
-0.25 1.85 2.68
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.45 1.95
+0.50 1.35 1.70
+0.75 1.25 1.52
+1.00 1.15 1.35
+1.25 1.13 1.30
+1.50 1.12 1.25

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.75 2.73
0 1.50 2.36
+0.25 1.38 1.93

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.82 2.72
+0.25 1.44 1.95

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.50 8.70
-1.50 3.50 6.60
-1.25 3.14 6.15
-1.00 2.78 5.70
-0.75 2.24 3.88
-0.25 1.71 2.70
0 1.49 2.36
+0.25 1.36 1.92
+0.75 1.18 1.52
+1.00 1.08 1.34
+1.25 1.06 1.27
+1.50 1.05 1.22

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.03 3.30
-0.25 1.78 2.91
0 1.53 2.53
+0.25 1.41 2.06
+0.50 1.34 1.81
Primary Bets
More