Denver Summit W vs Angel City W Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Denver Summit W
Oct 18, 2026 - 00:45
2.13 1.89
Angel City W
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Denver Summit W opened at -0.25 against Angel City W in the NWSL Women. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.22
Denver Summit W -0.22

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Denver Summit W -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.03
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.03 AH points more toward Angel City W than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Angel City W +0.25
@ 2.67
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.03
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.98
Price Advantage
+34.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.76 / 2.56 -0.25 1.76 / 2.56 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.83 / 2.67 -0.25 1.83 / 2.67 — 0
Bet365 0 1.72 / 2.08 0 1.72 / 2.08 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.78 / 2.56 -0.25 1.78 / 2.56 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.63 / 2.26 -0.25 1.66 / 2.20 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.22
xG 2.13 / 1.89 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.83
Denver Summit W @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.02
Denver Summit W @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.83 vs 2.02
Market price is 9.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 5.85
-1.00 2.88 5.05
-0.75 2.30 3.50
-0.25 1.78 2.56
0 1.54 2.25
+0.25 1.40 1.88
+0.75 1.22 1.49
+1.00 1.10 1.32
+1.50 1.07 1.21

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.00 6.40
-1.50 3.90 5.00
-1.25 3.55 4.50
-1.00 3.30 4.25
-0.75 2.60 3.30
-0.50 2.25 2.68
-0.25 2.00 2.38
0 1.72 2.08
+0.25 1.55 1.80
+0.50 1.45 1.62
+0.75 1.32 1.48
+1.00 1.21 1.32
+1.25 1.19 1.27
+1.50 1.17 1.24
+1.75 1.12 1.17

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.66 2.20
0 1.46 1.94
+0.25 1.34 1.67

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 5.85
-1.00 2.88 5.05
-0.75 2.30 3.50
-0.25 1.76 2.56
0 1.54 2.25
+0.25 1.40 1.86
+0.75 1.22 1.49
+1.00 1.10 1.32
+1.50 1.07 1.21

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.06 3.01
-0.25 1.83 2.67
0 1.56 2.35
+0.25 1.43 1.96
+0.50 1.35 1.73
Primary Bets
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