Utah Royals W vs Kansas City W Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Utah Royals W
Oct 17, 2026 - 22:30
1.76 2.23
Kansas City W
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Utah Royals W opened at -0.25 against Kansas City W in the NWSL Women. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.45
Utah Royals W +0.45

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Utah Royals W -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.70
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.70 AH points more toward Kansas City W than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Kansas City W +0.25
@ 1.87
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.70
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.52
Price Advantage
+23.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.83 / 1.64 -0.25 2.66 / 1.72 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.90 / 1.70 -0.25 2.56 / 1.87 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.85 / 1.70 -0.50 3.10 / 1.95 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.86 / 1.64 -0.25 2.69 / 1.72 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.32 / 1.53 -0.25 2.32 / 1.53 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.45
xG 1.76 / 2.23 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.56
Utah Royals W @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.91
Utah Royals W @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.56 vs 2.91
Market price is 12.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.45 3.50
-1.00 5.55 2.83
-0.75 3.82 2.28
-0.25 2.69 1.72
0 2.34 1.50
+0.25 1.91 1.38
+0.75 1.52 1.19
+1.00 1.33 1.08
+1.50 1.22 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.25 3.30
-1.25 5.90 2.85
-1.00 5.50 2.60
-0.75 3.90 2.15
-0.50 3.10 1.95
-0.25 2.85 1.72
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.08 1.40
+0.50 1.85 1.35
+0.75 1.68 1.24
+1.00 1.48 1.15
+1.25 1.40 1.13
+1.50 1.32 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.32 1.53
0 2.19 1.35
+0.25 1.83 1.30

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.45 3.50
-1.00 5.55 2.83
-0.75 3.82 2.26
-0.25 2.66 1.72
0 2.34 1.50
+0.25 1.91 1.37
+0.75 1.51 1.19
+1.00 1.33 1.08
+1.50 1.22 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.88 2.10
-0.25 2.56 1.87
0 2.25 1.61
+0.25 1.92 1.46
+0.50 1.70 1.37
Primary Bets
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