Merani Martvili vs Sioni Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Merani Martvili
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Sioni
Kick-off 12:00 Stadium Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Merani Martvili opened at -0.25 against Sioni in the Erovnuli Liga 2. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.23 / 1.37
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Merani Martvili -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.37
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.37 AH points more toward Sioni than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Sioni +0.25
@ 2.56
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.37
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.63
Price Advantage
+57.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:11
Opening
-0.25
08:14
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
11:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.86 / 2.46 -0.25 1.84 / 2.52 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.88 / 2.56 -0.25 1.88 / 2.56 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 1.61 / 2.18 -0.25 1.86 / 2.52 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.20 6.35
-1.00 3.34 5.45
-0.75 2.52 3.58
-0.25 1.86 2.52
0 1.58 2.17
+0.25 1.41 1.80
+0.75 1.21 1.41
+1.00 1.08 1.24
+1.50 1.06 1.15

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.20 6.35
-1.00 3.34 5.45
-0.75 2.52 3.58
-0.25 1.84 2.52
0 1.58 2.17
+0.25 1.41 1.78
+0.75 1.21 1.41
+1.00 1.08 1.24
+1.50 1.06 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.14 2.92
-0.25 1.88 2.56
0 1.58 2.21
+0.25 1.42 1.83
+0.50 1.33 1.61
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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