Kolkheti Poti vs Samtredia Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Kolkheti Poti
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Samtredia
Kick-off 13:00 Stadium Fazisi Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Kolkheti Poti opened at 0 against Samtredia in the Erovnuli Liga 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Kolkheti Poti from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.31 / 1.29
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Kolkheti Poti -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Samtredia than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Samtredia +0.25
@ 2.05
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+17.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:11
Opening
0
12:14
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.85 / 1.81 -0.25 2.35 / 1.94 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.75 / 1.98 -0.25 2.43 / 1.93 — -0.25
Bet365 0 1.95 / 1.85 0 1.95 / 1.85 — 0
1xBet 0 1.73 / 2.00 0 1.94 / 1.73 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.91 / 1.88 -0.25 1.91 / 1.88 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.76 / 1.92 0 1.96 / 1.72 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.65 4.80
-1.25 4.70 4.34
-1.00 4.65 3.84
-0.75 3.20 2.78
-0.25 2.28 2.00
0 1.94 1.73
+0.25 1.65 1.52
+0.75 1.34 1.26
+1.00 1.18 1.12
+1.25 1.14 1.12
+1.50 1.12 1.08

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.05 2.05
0 1.95 1.85
+0.25 1.75 1.75

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.96 1.72

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.91 1.88
+0.25 1.72 1.70

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.70 8.90
-1.50 5.95 4.55
-1.25 4.70 4.10
-1.00 4.95 3.58
-0.75 3.34 2.66
-0.25 2.35 1.94
0 2.03 1.67
+0.25 1.70 1.47
+0.75 1.37 1.24
+1.00 1.21 1.11
+1.25 1.16 1.12
+1.50 1.13 1.07

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.09 2.55
-0.50 2.74 2.17
-0.25 2.43 1.93
0 2.12 1.64
+0.25 1.81 1.47
+0.50 1.61 1.38
+0.75 1.43 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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