Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Daejeon Citizen
Oct 09, 2026 - 05:00
1.23 1.25
Jeonbuk Motors
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Daejeon Citizen opened at -0.25 against Jeonbuk Motors in the K League 1. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Daejeon Citizen -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Jeonbuk Motors than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Jeonbuk Motors +0.25
@ 2.64
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.71
Price Advantage
+54.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.86 / 2.48 -0.25 1.86 / 2.48 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.50 / 1.88 +0.25 1.50 / 1.88 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.90 / 2.48 -0.25 1.90 / 2.48 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.93 / 2.55 -0.25 1.93 / 2.55 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
xG 1.23 / 1.25 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.86
Daejeon Citizen @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.40
Daejeon Citizen @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.86 vs 2.40
Market price is 22.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.45 8.50
-1.50 4.20 6.25
-1.25 3.76 5.74
-1.00 3.28 5.25
-0.75 2.50 3.52
-0.25 1.90 2.48
0 1.63 2.17
+0.25 1.44 1.83
+0.75 1.22 1.42
+1.00 1.09 1.25
+1.25 1.07 1.19
+1.50 1.06 1.15

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.93 2.55
+0.25 1.50 1.85

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.45 8.50
-1.50 4.20 6.25
-1.25 3.76 5.75
-1.00 3.28 5.25
-0.75 2.50 3.52
-0.25 1.86 2.48
0 1.63 2.17
+0.25 1.44 1.79
+0.75 1.22 1.42
+1.00 1.09 1.25
+1.25 1.07 1.19
+1.50 1.06 1.15

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.67 3.78
-0.50 2.25 3.01
-0.25 1.97 2.64
0 1.67 2.26
+0.25 1.50 1.88
+0.50 1.39 1.67
+0.75 1.27 1.49
Primary Bets
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