IF Karlstad vs Arlanda Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

IF Karlstad
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.38 1.22
Arlanda
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

IF Karlstad opened at -0.25 against Arlanda in the Ettan - Norra. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
IF Karlstad -0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
IF Karlstad -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Arlanda than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Arlanda +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.88
Price Advantage
+46.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.69 / 2.78 -0.25 1.73 / 2.70 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.69 / 2.78 -0.25 1.73 / 2.70 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
xG 1.38 / 1.22 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.73
IF Karlstad @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.14
IF Karlstad @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.73 vs 2.14
Market price is 19.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 6.65
-1.25 3.31 6.20
-1.00 2.92 5.75
-0.75 2.28 3.88
-0.25 1.73 2.70
0 1.48 2.33
+0.25 1.36 1.90
+0.75 1.18 1.50
+1.00 1.07 1.33
+1.25 1.06 1.26
+1.50 1.05 1.21

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.70 6.60
-1.25 3.45 6.00
-1.00 3.00 5.75
-0.75 2.38 3.90
-0.50 2.08 3.10
-0.25 1.82 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.98
+0.50 1.35 1.72
+0.75 1.24 1.55
+1.00 1.14 1.38
+1.25 1.12 1.30
+1.50 1.11 1.26

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 6.65
-1.25 3.28 6.20
-1.00 2.92 5.75
-0.75 2.28 3.88
-0.25 1.73 2.70
0 1.48 2.33
+0.25 1.36 1.90
+0.75 1.18 1.50
+1.00 1.07 1.33
+1.25 1.06 1.25
+1.50 1.05 1.21
Primary Bets
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