Rosengård vs Atvidabergs FF Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Rosengård
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.22 1.38
Atvidabergs FF
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Rosengård opened at -0.25 against Atvidabergs FF in the Ettan - Södra. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Rosengård +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Rosengård -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.39
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.39 AH points more toward Atvidabergs FF than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Atvidabergs FF +0.25
@ 2.85
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.39
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.62
Price Advantage
+75.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.43 -0.25 1.77 / 2.49 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.76 / 2.70 -0.25 1.76 / 2.70 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.92 / 2.50 -0.50 2.00 / 3.10 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.83 / 2.43 -0.25 1.79 / 2.49 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
xG 1.22 / 1.38 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.76
Rosengård @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.62
Rosengård @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.76 vs 2.62
Market price is 32.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.10 9.60
-2.00 6.45 9.20
-1.75 4.54 7.40
-1.50 3.58 5.75
-1.25 3.20 5.35
-1.00 2.88 4.95
-0.75 2.30 3.50
-0.25 1.79 2.49
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.42 1.87
+0.75 1.22 1.49
+1.00 1.11 1.32
+1.25 1.09 1.26
+1.50 1.07 1.21
+1.75 1.03 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.45 6.60
-1.25 3.10 6.00
-1.00 2.75 5.75
-0.75 2.25 3.90
-0.50 2.00 3.10
-0.25 1.75 2.85
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.40 2.05
+0.50 1.35 1.80
+0.75 1.24 1.62
+1.00 1.14 1.42
+1.25 1.12 1.35
+1.50 1.11 1.30

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 6.45 9.20
-1.75 4.55 7.40
-1.50 3.58 5.75
-1.25 3.20 5.35
-1.00 2.88 4.95
-0.75 2.30 3.50
-0.25 1.77 2.49
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.42 1.85
+0.75 1.22 1.49
+1.00 1.11 1.32
+1.25 1.09 1.26
+1.50 1.07 1.21
+1.75 1.03 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.76 2.70
0 1.53 2.37
+0.25 1.42 2.01
Primary Bets
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