Hässleholms IF vs AFC Malmo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Hässleholms IF
Final Score
2 – 0
(HT 2-0)
AFC Malmo
Kick-off 17:00 Stadium Osteras IP

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Hässleholms IF opened at 0 against AFC Malmo in the Ettan - Södra. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Hässleholms IF from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
Hässleholms IF -0.29

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.46 / 1.14
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Hässleholms IF -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Hässleholms IF than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
AFC Malmo +0.25
@ 2.49
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.05
Price Advantage
+21.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
+0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
04:22
Opening
0
16:13
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
16:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.80 / 1.86 -0.25 1.86 / 2.41 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.74 / 2.05 +0.25 1.51 / 1.86 +0.25 +0.25
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 0 1.82 / 1.98 0 0
1xBet 0 1.88 / 1.82 -0.25 1.94 / 2.33 -0.25 -0.25
BetVictor 0 1.68 / 2.01 -0.25 1.91 / 2.28 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.00 10.00
-2.00 8.10 9.70
-1.75 5.40 7.70
-1.50 4.20 5.45
-1.25 3.80 5.00
-1.00 3.34 4.55
-0.75 2.59 3.20
-0.25 1.94 2.33
0 1.67 2.02
+0.25 1.48 1.73
+0.75 1.26 1.39
+1.00 1.13 1.24
+1.25 1.10 1.19
+1.50 1.08 1.15
+1.75 1.04 1.09

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.90 6.40
-1.50 4.40 4.80
-1.25 4.10 4.40
-1.00 3.70 4.00
-0.75 2.85 3.00
-0.50 2.38 2.50
-0.25 2.10 2.25
0 1.82 1.98
+0.25 1.62 1.70
+0.50 1.50 1.55
+0.75 1.38 1.40
+1.00 1.23 1.26
+1.25 1.20 1.23
+1.50 1.18 1.20
+1.75 1.12 1.13

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.91 2.28
0 1.64 2.08
+0.25 1.53 1.77

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.50 8.70
-2.00 7.70 9.30
-1.75 5.15 7.60
-1.50 4.00 5.75
-1.25 3.58 5.30
-1.00 3.20 4.80
-0.75 2.49 3.34
-0.25 1.86 2.41
0 1.62 2.10
+0.25 1.45 1.76
+0.75 1.24 1.42
+1.00 1.11 1.26
+1.25 1.09 1.21
+1.50 1.07 1.17
+1.75 1.03 1.10

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.55 3.16
-0.50 2.20 2.81
-0.25 1.95 2.49
0 1.68 2.18
+0.25 1.51 1.86
+0.50 1.41 1.66
+0.75 1.32 1.48
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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