Haka vs PK-35 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Haka
Oct 09, 2026 - 16:00
1.27 1.33
PK-35
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Haka opened at 0 against PK-35 in the Ykkösliiga. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Haka 0
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward PK-35 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
PK-35 0
@ 2.07
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.93
Price Advantage
+7.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.71 / 1.96 0 1.71 / 1.96 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.74 / 2.07 0 1.74 / 2.07 — 0
1xBet 0 1.71 / 1.96 0 1.71 / 1.96 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.27 / 1.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.74
Haka @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.08
Haka @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.74 vs 2.08
Market price is 16.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.10 9.70
-1.75 5.50 7.02
-1.50 4.30 5.15
-1.25 3.92 4.75
-1.00 3.50 4.33
-0.75 2.62 3.08
-0.25 1.97 2.24
0 1.71 1.96
+0.25 1.52 1.70
+0.75 1.28 1.38
+1.00 1.14 1.22
+1.25 1.12 1.18
+1.50 1.10 1.14
+1.75 1.05 1.08

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.50 6.65
-1.50 4.30 5.15
-1.25 3.92 4.75
-1.00 3.50 4.33
-0.75 2.62 3.08
-0.25 1.95 2.24
0 1.71 1.96
+0.25 1.52 1.69
+0.75 1.28 1.38
+1.00 1.14 1.22
+1.25 1.12 1.18
+1.50 1.10 1.14
+1.75 1.05 1.08

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.68 4.56
-0.75 2.79 3.39
-0.50 2.33 2.75
-0.25 2.05 2.42
0 1.74 2.07
+0.25 1.55 1.78
+0.50 1.43 1.59
+0.75 1.30 1.43
+1.00 1.19 1.26
Primary Bets
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