Deportivo Español vs Central Cordoba Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Deportivo Español
Oct 12, 2026 - 18:00
1.35 1.25
Central Cordoba
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Deportivo Español opened at -0.25 against Central Cordoba in the Primera C. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Deportivo Español -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Central Cordoba than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Central Cordoba +0.25
@ 2.85
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.82
Price Advantage
+56.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.83 / 2.83 -0.25 1.83 / 2.83 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 2.85 -0.25 1.95 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.85 / 2.83 -0.25 1.85 / 2.83 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
xG 1.35 / 1.25 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.83
Deportivo Español @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.22
Deportivo Español @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.83 vs 2.22
Market price is 17.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.20 8.30
-1.00 3.98 8.20
-0.75 2.69 4.60
-0.25 1.85 2.83
0 1.50 2.34
+0.25 1.33 1.81
+0.75 1.13 1.36
+1.00 1.02 1.17
+1.50 1.03 1.10

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.75 4.50
-0.50 2.30 3.45
-0.25 1.95 2.85
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.40 1.85
+0.50 1.30 1.60
+0.75 1.19 1.42

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.98 8.20
-0.75 2.69 4.60
-0.25 1.83 2.83
0 1.50 2.34
+0.25 1.33 1.79
+0.75 1.13 1.36
+1.00 1.02 1.17
Primary Bets
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