UAI Urquiza vs Real Pilar Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

UAI Urquiza
Oct 12, 2026 - 18:00
1.14 1.46
Real Pilar
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

UAI Urquiza opened at -0.25 against Real Pilar in the Primera B Metropolitana. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.29
UAI Urquiza +0.29

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
UAI Urquiza -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.54
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.54 AH points more toward Real Pilar than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Real Pilar +0.25
@ 2.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.54
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.51
Price Advantage
+32.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.56 / 1.89 -0.25 2.56 / 1.89 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.68 / 2.00 -0.25 2.68 / 2.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.58 / 1.89 -0.25 2.58 / 1.89 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.29
xG 1.14 / 1.46 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.56
UAI Urquiza @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.95
UAI Urquiza @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.56 vs 2.95
Market price is 13.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.50 4.85
-1.25 6.89 4.33
-1.00 6.25 3.82
-0.75 3.92 2.69
-0.25 2.58 1.89
0 2.15 1.59
+0.25 1.74 1.41
+0.75 1.36 1.18
+1.00 1.19 1.06
+1.25 1.14 1.04
+1.50 1.11 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 6.60 4.25
-1.00 6.00 3.80
-0.75 3.90 2.75
-0.50 3.10 2.30
-0.25 2.68 2.00
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.80 1.45
+0.50 1.60 1.35
+0.75 1.42 1.24
+1.00 1.25 1.12
+1.25 1.21 1.11

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.50 4.85
-1.25 6.90 4.33
-1.00 6.25 3.82
-0.75 3.92 2.69
-0.25 2.56 1.89
0 2.15 1.59
+0.25 1.74 1.40
+0.75 1.36 1.18
+1.00 1.19 1.06
+1.25 1.14 1.04
+1.50 1.11 1.03
Primary Bets
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