Real Pilar vs Villa Dalmine Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Real Pilar
Oct 03, 2026 - 20:00
1.46 1.14
Villa Dalmine
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Real Pilar opened at -0.25 against Villa Dalmine in the Primera B Metropolitana. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
Real Pilar -0.29

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Real Pilar -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Real Pilar than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Villa Dalmine +0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.05
Price Advantage
+30.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.92 / 2.52 -0.25 1.92 / 2.52 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.02 / 2.68 -0.25 2.02 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.98 / 2.70 -0.25 1.94 / 2.52 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
xG 1.46 / 1.14 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.92
Real Pilar @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.96
Real Pilar @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.92 vs 1.96
Market price is 2.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.10 7.30
-1.25 4.60 6.75
-1.00 4.10 6.20
-0.75 2.78 3.88
-0.25 1.94 2.52
0 1.61 2.11
+0.25 1.41 1.73
+0.75 1.18 1.34
+1.00 1.06 1.16
+1.25 1.04 1.13
+1.50 1.03 1.10

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.15 6.60
-0.75 2.85 4.10
-0.50 2.35 3.10
-0.25 2.02 2.68
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.45 1.78
+0.50 1.35 1.58
+0.75 1.23 1.40
+1.00 1.11 1.22

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.10 7.30
-1.25 4.60 6.75
-1.00 4.10 6.20
-0.75 2.78 3.88
-0.25 1.92 2.52
0 1.61 2.11
+0.25 1.41 1.71
+0.75 1.18 1.34
+1.00 1.06 1.16
+1.25 1.04 1.13
+1.50 1.03 1.10
Primary Bets
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