Defensores Unidos vs Argentino Quilmes Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Defensores Unidos
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00
1.36 1.24
Argentino Quilmes
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Defensores Unidos opened at -0.25 against Argentino Quilmes in the Primera B Metropolitana. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Defensores Unidos -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward Argentino Quilmes than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Argentino Quilmes +0.25
@ 2.85
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.84
Price Advantage
+54.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.90 / 2.69 -0.25 1.90 / 2.66 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.85 -0.25 1.98 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.92 / 2.69 -0.25 1.92 / 2.66 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
xG 1.36 / 1.24 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.90
Defensores Unidos @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.19
Defensores Unidos @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.90 vs 2.19
Market price is 13.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.05 7.80
-1.25 4.54 7.30
-1.00 4.00 6.75
-0.75 2.74 4.14
-0.25 1.92 2.66
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.37 1.75
+0.75 1.16 1.35
+1.00 1.04 1.17
+1.25 1.03 1.13
+1.50 1.02 1.10

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.85 4.50
-0.50 2.35 3.45
-0.25 1.98 2.85
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.40 1.82
+0.50 1.30 1.58
+0.75 1.19 1.40

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.70 9.30
-1.50 5.05 7.80
-1.25 4.55 7.30
-1.00 4.00 6.75
-0.75 2.74 4.15
-0.25 1.90 2.66
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.37 1.73
+0.75 1.16 1.35
+1.00 1.04 1.17
+1.25 1.03 1.13
+1.50 1.02 1.10
Primary Bets
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