Flandria vs Dock Sud Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Flandria
Sep 28, 2026 - 18:00
1.43 1.17
Dock Sud
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Flandria opened at -0.25 against Dock Sud in the Primera B Metropolitana. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.23
Flandria -0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Flandria -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Dock Sud than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Dock Sud +0.25
@ 2.50
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.98
Price Advantage
+26.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.96 / 2.43 -0.25 1.96 / 2.43 — 0
Bet365 0 1.70 / 2.10 0 1.70 / 2.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.98 / 2.43 -0.25 1.98 / 2.43 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.23
xG 1.43 / 1.17 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.96
Flandria @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.02
Flandria @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.96 vs 2.02
Market price is 3.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.84 9.50
-1.50 5.10 6.90
-1.25 4.64 6.39
-1.00 4.10 5.80
-0.75 2.83 3.70
-0.25 1.98 2.43
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.44 1.70
+0.75 1.20 1.33
+1.00 1.07 1.16
+1.25 1.05 1.12
+1.50 1.04 1.10

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.25 6.80
-1.25 4.50 6.40
-1.00 4.10 5.75
-0.75 2.85 3.70
-0.50 2.38 3.00
-0.25 2.05 2.50
0 1.70 2.10
+0.25 1.50 1.75
+0.50 1.38 1.55
+0.75 1.26 1.40
+1.00 1.14 1.23
+1.25 1.12 1.19
+1.50 1.10 1.16

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.85 9.50
-1.50 5.10 6.90
-1.25 4.65 6.40
-1.00 4.10 5.80
-0.75 2.83 3.70
-0.25 1.96 2.43
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.44 1.68
+0.75 1.20 1.33
+1.00 1.07 1.16
+1.25 1.05 1.12
+1.50 1.04 1.10
Primary Bets
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