Sportivo Italiano vs Brown DE Adrogue Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sportivo Italiano
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Brown DE Adrogue
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium Republica de Italia Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sportivo Italiano opened at -0.25 against Brown DE Adrogue in the Primera B Metropolitana. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.35 / 1.25
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Sportivo Italiano -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Brown DE Adrogue than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Brown DE Adrogue +0.25
@ 2.81
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.82
Price Advantage
+54.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:21
Opening
-0.25
16:18
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.71 / 2.97 -0.25 1.84 / 2.70 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.91 / 2.81 -0.25 1.91 / 2.81 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.75 -0.25 1.92 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.73 / 2.97 -0.25 1.86 / 2.70 — 0
BetVictor -0.50 1.92 / 2.67 -0.50 1.71 / 2.89 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.55 7.50
-1.25 4.10 7.00
-1.00 3.58 6.55
-0.75 2.62 4.14
-0.25 1.86 2.70
0 1.53 2.27
+0.25 1.36 1.80
+0.75 1.16 1.38
+1.00 1.05 1.21
+1.25 1.04 1.16
+1.50 1.03 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.70 6.60
-0.75 2.68 4.25
-0.50 2.25 3.30
-0.25 1.92 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.88
+0.50 1.32 1.62
+0.75 1.21 1.45
+1.00 1.11 1.26

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.71 2.89
-0.25 1.50 2.78
0 1.27 2.42
+0.25 1.19 1.88
+0.50 1.17 1.63

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.55 7.50
-1.25 4.10 7.00
-1.00 3.58 6.55
-0.75 2.62 4.15
-0.25 1.84 2.70
0 1.53 2.27
+0.25 1.36 1.78
+0.75 1.16 1.38
+1.00 1.05 1.21
+1.25 1.04 1.16
+1.50 1.03 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.23 3.28
-0.25 1.91 2.81
0 1.54 2.34
+0.25 1.37 1.85
+0.50 1.28 1.60
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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