San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Laferrere Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

San Martín Burzaco
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 2-0)
Deportivo Laferrere
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium Francisco Boga Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

San Martín Burzaco opened at 0 against Deportivo Laferrere in the Primera B Metropolitana. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward San Martín Burzaco from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.33 / 1.27
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
San Martín Burzaco -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Deportivo Laferrere than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Deportivo Laferrere +0.25
@ 2.78
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+55.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:21
Opening
0
16:18
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.83 / 1.83 -0.25 1.89 / 2.66 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.83 / 1.93 -0.25 1.95 / 2.78 — -0.25
Bet365 0 1.85 / 1.95 -0.25 1.98 / 2.68 — -0.25
1xBet 0 1.83 / 1.83 -0.25 1.91 / 2.66 — -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 1.98 / 1.95 -0.50 1.97 / 2.59 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.65 8.80
-1.50 4.95 8.00
-1.25 4.40 7.39
-1.00 3.88 6.75
-0.75 2.74 4.15
-0.25 1.91 2.66
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.37 1.76
+0.75 1.16 1.35
+1.00 1.04 1.18
+1.25 1.03 1.14
+1.50 1.02 1.11

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.65 6.25
-1.25 4.25 6.80
-1.00 3.70 6.25
-0.75 2.75 3.90
-0.50 2.25 3.10
-0.25 1.98 2.68
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.45 1.82
+0.50 1.35 1.62
+0.75 1.24 1.42
+1.00 1.12 1.26
+1.25 1.10 1.21
+1.50 1.12 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.32 2.89
-0.50 1.97 2.59
-0.25 1.72 2.29
0 1.46 1.95
+0.25 1.31 1.62
+0.50 1.23 1.44
+0.75 1.17 1.30

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.65 9.20
-1.50 4.95 8.00
-1.25 4.40 7.40
-1.00 3.88 6.75
-0.75 2.74 4.15
-0.25 1.89 2.66
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.37 1.74
+0.75 1.16 1.35
+1.00 1.04 1.18
+1.25 1.03 1.14
+1.50 1.02 1.11

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.75 3.45
-0.50 2.29 3.25
-0.25 1.95 2.78
0 1.58 2.31
+0.25 1.40 1.83
+0.50 1.30 1.59
+0.75 1.26 1.41
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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