Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Acassuso
Oct 17, 2026 - 18:30
1.23 1.37
Deportivo Madryn
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 5 books · 60% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Acassuso opened at -0.25 against Deportivo Madryn in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Acassuso -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.37
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.37 AH points more toward Deportivo Madryn than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Deportivo Madryn +0.25
@ 2.38
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.37
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.63
Price Advantage
+46.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.56 / 1.91 -0.25 2.56 / 1.91 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.69 / 2.02 -0.25 2.69 / 2.02 — 0
Bet365 0 1.80 / 2.00 0 1.80 / 2.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.58 / 1.91 -0.25 2.58 / 1.91 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.87 / 2.47 -0.50 2.87 / 2.47 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
xG 1.23 / 1.37 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.69
Acassuso @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.59
Acassuso @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.69 vs 2.59
Market price is 3.9% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 5.05
-1.25 7.00 4.54
-1.00 6.40 3.96
-0.75 3.92 2.74
-0.25 2.58 1.91
0 2.13 1.60
+0.25 1.72 1.41
+0.75 1.35 1.18
+1.00 1.17 1.05
+1.25 1.13 1.04
+1.50 1.10 1.03

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.90 6.60
-1.25 5.50 6.00
-1.00 4.65 5.75
-0.75 3.30 3.55
-0.50 2.60 2.85
-0.25 2.20 2.38
0 1.80 2.00
+0.25 1.55 1.65
+0.50 1.40 1.48
+0.75 1.27 1.32
+1.00 1.14 1.18
+1.25 1.12 1.15
+1.50 1.11 1.13

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.87 2.47
+0.50 1.50 1.38

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 5.05
-1.25 7.00 4.55
-1.00 6.40 3.96
-0.75 3.92 2.74
-0.25 2.56 1.91
0 2.13 1.60
+0.25 1.72 1.40
+0.75 1.35 1.18
+1.00 1.17 1.05
+1.25 1.13 1.04
+1.50 1.10 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.08 2.88
-0.50 3.14 2.37
-0.25 2.69 2.02
0 2.22 1.65
+0.25 1.79 1.45
+0.50 1.57 1.34
+0.75 1.40 1.22
Primary Bets
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