Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J. Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Deportivo Maipu
Oct 11, 2026 - 20:00
1.25 1.35
San Martin S.J.
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Deportivo Maipu opened at -0.25 against San Martin S.J. in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Deportivo Maipu -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward San Martin S.J. than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
San Martin S.J. +0.25
@ 3.04
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+83.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.79 / 2.78 -0.25 1.77 / 2.88 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.82 / 3.12 -0.25 1.88 / 3.04 — 0
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 1.90 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.81 / 2.78 -0.25 1.79 / 2.88 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.00 / 2.62 -0.25 2.00 / 2.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
xG 1.25 / 1.35 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.88
Deportivo Maipu @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.52
Deportivo Maipu @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.88 vs 2.52
Market price is 25.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.65 7.90
-1.50 4.33 8.10
-1.25 3.88 7.65
-1.00 3.34 7.10
-0.75 2.46 4.39
-0.25 1.79 2.88
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.32 1.87
+0.75 1.14 1.43
+1.00 1.04 1.24
+1.25 1.02 1.18
+1.50 1.02 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.08

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 6.40
-1.25 5.90 5.90
-1.00 5.25 5.25
-0.75 3.45 3.45
-0.50 2.75 2.75
-0.25 2.05 2.30
0 1.90 1.90
+0.25 1.60 1.75
+0.50 1.42 1.42
+0.75 1.30 1.30
+1.00 1.16 1.16
+1.25 1.13 1.13
+1.50 1.12 1.12

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.07 2.65
-0.25 2.00 2.62
+0.25 1.45 1.75
+0.50 1.45 1.70

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.65 7.90
-1.50 4.33 8.10
-1.25 3.88 7.70
-1.00 3.34 7.10
-0.75 2.46 4.40
-0.25 1.77 2.88
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.32 1.85
+0.75 1.14 1.43
+1.00 1.04 1.24
+1.25 1.03 1.18
+1.50 1.02 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.08

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.69 4.74
-0.50 2.21 3.55
-0.25 1.88 3.04
0 1.52 2.50
+0.25 1.37 1.93
+0.50 1.28 1.65
+0.75 1.18 1.45
Primary Bets
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