Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Atletico Mitre
Oct 11, 2026 - 20:00
1.40 1.20
Colon Santa Fe
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Atletico Mitre opened at 0 against Colon Santa Fe in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
Atletico Mitre -0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Atletico Mitre 0
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Atletico Mitre than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Atletico Mitre 0
@ 1.81
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+2.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.77 / 1.89 0 1.77 / 1.89 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.81 / 2.01 0 1.81 / 2.01 — 0
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 0 1.75 / 2.05 — 0
1xBet 0 1.77 / 1.89 0 1.77 / 1.89 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.55 / 1.62 +0.25 1.55 / 1.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
xG 1.40 / 1.20 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.81
Atletico Mitre @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.77
Atletico Mitre @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.81 vs 1.77
Market price is 2.3% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.70 8.50
-1.50 5.80 6.35
-1.25 5.30 5.85
-1.00 4.80 5.30
-0.75 3.14 3.42
-0.25 2.16 2.28
0 1.77 1.89
+0.25 1.50 1.58
+0.75 1.23 1.27
+1.00 1.09 1.12
+1.25 1.07 1.09
+1.50 1.06 1.07

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.00 6.60
-1.25 5.50 6.80
-1.00 4.80 6.25
-0.75 3.30 3.80
-0.50 2.50 3.00
-0.25 2.15 2.50
0 1.75 2.05
+0.25 1.50 1.68
+0.50 1.38 1.50
+0.75 1.25 1.32
+1.00 1.12 1.18
+1.25 1.10 1.15
+1.50 1.11 1.12

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.62 2.80
-0.25 2.22 2.37
+0.25 1.55 1.62
+0.50 1.40 1.45

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.70 8.50
-1.50 5.80 6.35
-1.25 5.30 5.85
-1.00 4.80 5.30
-0.75 3.14 3.42
-0.25 2.14 2.28
0 1.77 1.89
+0.25 1.50 1.57
+0.75 1.23 1.27
+1.00 1.09 1.12
+1.25 1.07 1.09
+1.50 1.06 1.07

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.19 6.06
-0.75 3.41 3.84
-0.50 2.69 2.97
-0.25 2.25 2.50
0 1.81 2.01
+0.25 1.52 1.63
+0.50 1.38 1.45
+0.75 1.25 1.30
+1.00 1.12 1.15
Primary Bets
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