CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

CA Estudiantes
Oct 11, 2026 - 18:30
1.39 1.21
Deportivo Moron
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

CA Estudiantes opened at -0.25 against Deportivo Moron in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
CA Estudiantes -0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
CA Estudiantes -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Deportivo Moron than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Deportivo Moron +0.25
@ 3.03
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+59.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.03 / 2.62 -0.25 1.94 / 2.78 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.69 / 2.17 -0.25 2.02 / 3.03 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.08 / 2.60 -0.25 2.08 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.05 / 2.62 -0.25 1.96 / 2.78 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.10 / 2.62 -0.25 2.10 / 2.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
xG 1.39 / 1.21 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.02
CA Estudiantes @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.11
CA Estudiantes @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.02 vs 2.11
Market price is 4.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.55 9.20
-1.25 4.96 8.50
-1.00 4.40 7.90
-0.75 2.92 4.54
-0.25 1.96 2.78
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.34 1.72
+0.75 1.13 1.31
+1.00 1.02 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.50 7.00
-0.75 3.10 4.10
-0.50 2.42 3.10
-0.25 2.08 2.68
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.45 1.72
+0.50 1.35 1.52
+0.75 1.23 1.35
+1.00 1.10 1.19

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.42 3.10
-0.25 2.10 2.62
+0.25 1.45 1.67
+0.50 1.34 1.52

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.55 9.20
-1.25 4.95 8.50
-1.00 4.40 7.90
-0.75 2.92 4.55
-0.25 1.94 2.78
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.34 1.70
+0.75 1.13 1.31
+1.00 1.02 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.08 4.93
-0.50 2.45 3.63
-0.25 2.02 3.03
0 1.57 2.38
+0.25 1.37 1.79
+0.50 1.27 1.54
+0.75 1.17 1.36
Primary Bets
More