San Telmo vs Almirante Brown Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

San Telmo
Oct 04, 2026 - 18:30
1.26 1.34
Almirante Brown
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

San Telmo opened at 0 against Almirante Brown in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
San Telmo 0
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Almirante Brown than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Almirante Brown 0
@ 1.94
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+2.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.81 / 1.85 0 1.81 / 1.85 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.86 / 1.94 0 1.86 / 1.94 — 0
Bet365 0 2.00 / 1.80 0 2.00 / 1.80 — 0
1xBet 0 1.81 / 1.85 0 1.81 / 1.85 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.60 / 1.57 +0.25 1.57 / 1.57 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.26 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.86
San Telmo @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.11
San Telmo @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.86 vs 2.11
Market price is 11.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 9.00
-1.50 6.35 6.60
-1.25 5.80 6.04
-1.00 5.25 5.45
-0.75 3.34 3.50
-0.25 2.24 2.28
0 1.81 1.85
+0.25 1.50 1.55
+0.75 1.22 1.24
+1.00 1.08 1.09
+1.25 1.06 1.07
+1.50 1.05 1.06

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.25 6.60 5.75
-1.00 5.90 5.25
-0.75 3.70 3.30
-0.50 2.85 2.60
-0.25 2.42 2.25
0 2.00 1.80
+0.25 1.62 1.52
+0.50 1.48 1.40
+0.75 1.32 1.26
+1.00 1.16 1.13
+1.25 1.14 1.11

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.72 2.72
-0.25 2.32 2.30
+0.25 1.57 1.57
+0.50 1.42 1.42

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 9.00
-1.50 6.35 6.60
-1.25 5.80 6.05
-1.00 5.25 5.45
-0.75 3.34 3.50
-0.25 2.21 2.28
0 1.81 1.85
+0.25 1.50 1.53
+0.75 1.22 1.24
+1.00 1.08 1.09
+1.25 1.06 1.07
+1.50 1.05 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.63 6.02
-0.75 3.61 3.80
-0.50 2.82 2.94
-0.25 2.34 2.45
0 1.86 1.94
+0.25 1.54 1.58
+0.50 1.39 1.42
+0.75 1.25 1.27
+1.00 1.12 1.14
Primary Bets
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