Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ferro Carril Oeste
Oct 02, 2026 - 22:00
1.24 1.36
Deportivo Madryn
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ferro Carril Oeste opened at -0.25 against Deportivo Madryn in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ferro Carril Oeste -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.36
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.36 AH points more toward Deportivo Madryn than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Deportivo Madryn +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.36
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.64
Price Advantage
+82.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.83 -0.25 1.81 / 2.83 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.98 -0.25 1.93 / 2.98 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 3.00 -0.25 1.90 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.83 / 2.83 -0.25 1.83 / 2.83 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.85 / 2.90 -0.25 1.85 / 2.90 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
xG 1.24 / 1.36 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.93
Ferro Carril Oeste @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.55
Ferro Carril Oeste @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.93 vs 2.55
Market price is 24.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.70 8.60
-1.25 4.20 8.00
-1.00 3.68 7.40
-0.75 2.59 4.44
-0.25 1.83 2.83
0 1.50 2.34
+0.25 1.33 1.83
+0.75 1.14 1.39
+1.00 1.03 1.20
+1.25 1.02 1.15

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.68 4.50
-0.50 2.25 3.45
-0.25 1.90 3.00
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.38 1.90
+0.50 1.30 1.62
+0.75 1.19 1.45

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.85 2.90
+0.25 1.38 1.88

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.70 8.60
-1.25 4.20 8.00
-1.00 3.68 7.40
-0.75 2.59 4.45
-0.25 1.81 2.83
0 1.50 2.34
+0.25 1.33 1.81
+0.75 1.14 1.39
+1.00 1.03 1.20
+1.25 1.02 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.80 4.68
-0.50 2.28 3.51
-0.25 1.93 2.98
0 1.55 2.43
+0.25 1.38 1.88
+0.50 1.29 1.61
+0.75 1.18 1.43
Primary Bets
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