Club Atlético Güemes vs Colegiales Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Club Atlético Güemes
Oct 04, 2026 - 20:00
1.25 1.35
Colegiales
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Club Atlético Güemes opened at -0.25 against Colegiales in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Club Atlético Güemes -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Colegiales than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Colegiales +0.25
@ 2.02
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+21.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.78 / 1.81 -0.25 2.70 / 1.81 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.95 / 1.92 -0.25 2.94 / 1.88 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.68 / 2.02 -0.25 2.68 / 2.02 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.81 / 1.81 -0.25 2.73 / 1.81 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.60 / 2.00 -0.25 2.67 / 1.93 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
xG 1.25 / 1.35 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.94
Club Atlético Güemes @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.52
Club Atlético Güemes @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.94 vs 2.52
Market price is 16.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.10 4.70
-1.25 7.55 4.20
-1.00 6.95 3.68
-0.75 4.20 2.59
-0.25 2.73 1.81
0 2.29 1.52
+0.25 1.81 1.37
+0.75 1.39 1.15
+1.00 1.20 1.04
+1.25 1.15 1.03
+1.50 1.12 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 6.60 4.10
-0.50 3.10 2.35
-0.25 2.68 2.02
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.78 1.45
+0.50 1.58 1.35
+1.00 1.23 1.11

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.67 1.93
+0.25 1.82 1.44

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.10 4.70
-1.25 7.60 4.20
-1.00 6.95 3.68
-0.75 4.20 2.59
-0.25 2.70 1.81
0 2.29 1.52
+0.25 1.81 1.36
+0.75 1.39 1.15
+1.00 1.20 1.04
+1.25 1.15 1.03
+1.50 1.12 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.51 2.69
-0.50 3.41 2.21
-0.25 2.94 1.88
0 2.44 1.55
+0.25 1.92 1.39
+0.50 1.65 1.30
+0.75 1.45 1.19
Primary Bets
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