Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Atletico DE Rafaela
Oct 04, 2026 - 20:30
1.28 1.32
Atlanta
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Atletico DE Rafaela opened at 0 against Atlanta in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Atletico DE Rafaela 0
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Atlanta than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Atlanta 0
@ 2.13
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.95
Price Advantage
+9.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.68 / 2.00 0 1.69 / 1.99 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.12 / 2.78 0 1.72 / 2.13 — +0.25
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 1.90 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet 0 1.68 / 2.00 0 1.69 / 1.99 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.52 / 1.62 +0.25 1.52 / 1.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
xG 1.28 / 1.32 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.72
Atletico DE Rafaela @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.05
Atletico DE Rafaela @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.72 vs 2.05
Market price is 16.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.50 9.30
-1.50 5.65 7.00
-1.25 5.10 6.45
-1.00 4.60 5.90
-0.75 3.05 3.74
-0.25 2.08 2.43
0 1.69 1.99
+0.25 1.44 1.63
+0.75 1.19 1.28
+1.00 1.07 1.13
+1.25 1.05 1.10
+1.50 1.04 1.08

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 6.80
-1.25 6.25 6.25
-1.00 5.75 5.75
-0.75 3.55 3.55
-0.50 2.75 2.75
-0.25 2.35 2.35
0 1.90 1.90
+0.25 1.58 1.58
+0.50 1.42 1.42
+0.75 1.27 1.27
+1.00 1.14 1.14
+1.25 1.12 1.12
+1.50 1.10 1.10

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.57 2.85
-0.25 2.20 2.42
+0.25 1.52 1.62
+0.50 1.39 1.47

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.50 9.30
-1.50 5.65 7.00
-1.25 5.10 6.45
-1.00 4.60 5.90
-0.75 3.05 3.74
-0.25 2.06 2.43
0 1.69 1.99
+0.25 1.44 1.62
+0.75 1.19 1.28
+1.00 1.07 1.13
+1.25 1.05 1.10
+1.50 1.04 1.08

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.87 6.54
-0.75 3.23 4.09
-0.50 2.56 3.15
-0.25 2.14 2.64
0 1.72 2.13
+0.25 1.47 1.69
+0.50 1.35 1.50
+0.75 1.22 1.33
+1.00 1.11 1.17
Primary Bets
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