Acassuso vs Ciudad de Bolívar Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Acassuso
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00
1.32 1.28
Ciudad de Bolívar
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Acassuso opened at -0.25 against Ciudad de Bolívar in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Acassuso -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Ciudad de Bolívar than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Ciudad de Bolívar +0.25
@ 3.05
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+72.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.82 / 2.83 -0.25 1.84 / 2.81 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.91 / 3.05 -0.25 1.91 / 3.05 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.75 -0.25 1.98 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.84 / 2.83 -0.25 1.86 / 2.81 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.93 / 2.80 -0.25 1.93 / 2.80 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.91
Acassuso @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Acassuso @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.91 vs 2.30
Market price is 17.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.80 8.50
-1.25 4.30 7.90
-1.00 3.80 7.40
-0.75 2.66 4.40
-0.25 1.86 2.81
0 1.51 2.31
+0.25 1.33 1.80
+0.75 1.14 1.37
+1.00 1.03 1.19
+1.25 1.02 1.15

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.75 4.25
-0.50 2.30 3.30
-0.25 1.98 2.75
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.42 1.82
+0.50 1.32 1.60
+0.75 1.21 1.42

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.93 2.80
+0.25 1.40 1.82

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.80 8.50
-1.25 4.30 7.90
-1.00 3.80 7.40
-0.75 2.66 4.40
-0.25 1.84 2.81
0 1.51 2.31
+0.25 1.33 1.78
+0.75 1.14 1.37
+1.00 1.03 1.19
+1.25 1.02 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.79 4.79
-0.50 2.28 3.59
-0.25 1.91 3.05
0 1.53 2.48
+0.25 1.37 1.89
+0.50 1.28 1.62
+0.75 1.18 1.43
Primary Bets
More