Gimnasia Jujuy vs San Martin Tucuman Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Gimnasia Jujuy
Final Score
2 – 2
(HT 0-2)
San Martin Tucuman
Kick-off 00:00 Stadium Estadio 23 de Agosto

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Gimnasia Jujuy opened at -0.25 against San Martin Tucuman in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Gimnasia Jujuy -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward San Martin Tucuman than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
San Martin Tucuman +0.25
@ 3.17
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+79.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:03
Opening
-0.25
20:06
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.86 / 2.62 -0.25 1.64 / 3.14 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.01 / 2.76 -0.25 1.83 / 3.17 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.85 / 3.00 -0.25 1.80 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.88 / 2.62 -0.25 1.66 / 3.14 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.90 / 2.67 -0.25 1.72 / 2.95 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.78 / 2.85 -0.25 1.66 / 2.87 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 8.80
-1.25 3.20 8.30
-1.00 2.83 7.80
-0.75 2.21 4.84
-0.25 1.66 3.14
0 1.38 2.70
+0.25 1.27 2.04
+0.75 1.11 1.53
+1.00 1.02 1.33

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.42 4.65
-0.50 2.10 3.55
-0.25 1.80 3.10
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.35 2.00
+0.50 1.27 1.70
+0.75 1.18 1.52

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.66 2.87
0 1.40 2.67
+0.25 1.35 2.05

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.72 2.95
+0.25 1.36 2.05

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 8.80
-1.25 3.20 8.30
-1.00 2.83 7.80
-0.75 2.21 4.85
-0.25 1.64 3.14
0 1.38 2.70
+0.25 1.27 2.02
+0.75 1.11 1.53
+1.00 1.02 1.33

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.54 4.87
-0.50 2.14 3.67
-0.25 1.83 3.17
0 1.51 2.64
+0.25 1.37 2.03
+0.50 1.29 1.74
+0.75 1.19 1.53
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More