Ljungskile SK vs IK brage Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ljungskile SK
Oct 17, 2026 - 11:00
1.71 1.77
IK brage
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ljungskile SK opened at -0.25 against IK brage in the Superettan. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.06
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ljungskile SK -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.31
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.31 AH points more toward IK brage than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
IK brage +0.25
@ 2.98
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.31
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.73
Price Advantage
+72.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.67 / 2.77 -0.25 1.67 / 2.77 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.73 / 2.98 -0.25 1.73 / 2.98 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.71 / 2.77 -0.25 1.71 / 2.77 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.06
xG 1.71 / 1.77 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.73
Ljungskile SK @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.36
Ljungskile SK @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.73 vs 2.36
Market price is 26.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.20 9.00
-1.50 3.34 6.75
-1.25 2.97 6.25
-1.00 2.62 5.80
-0.75 2.15 3.95
-0.25 1.71 2.77
0 1.48 2.49
+0.25 1.35 2.03
+0.75 1.17 1.56
+1.00 1.07 1.38
+1.25 1.06 1.30
+1.50 1.04 1.24

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.20 9.00
-1.50 3.34 6.75
-1.25 2.97 6.25
-1.00 2.62 5.80
-0.75 2.15 3.95
-0.25 1.67 2.77
0 1.48 2.49
+0.25 1.35 1.99
+0.75 1.17 1.56
+1.00 1.07 1.38
+1.25 1.06 1.30
+1.50 1.04 1.24

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.26 3.82
-0.50 1.98 3.37
-0.25 1.73 2.98
0 1.49 2.59
+0.25 1.38 2.09
+0.50 1.31 1.83
+0.75 1.25 1.63
Primary Bets
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