Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Orebro SK
Oct 11, 2026 - 11:00
1.71 1.77
Ljungskile SK
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Orebro SK opened at -0.25 against Ljungskile SK in the Superettan. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.06
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Orebro SK -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.31
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.31 AH points more toward Ljungskile SK than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Ljungskile SK +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.31
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.73
Price Advantage
+59.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.78 / 2.58 -0.25 1.78 / 2.58 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.88 / 2.71 -0.25 1.88 / 2.71 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.82 / 2.58 -0.25 1.82 / 2.58 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.85 / 2.62 -0.25 1.85 / 2.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.06
xG 1.71 / 1.77 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.88
Orebro SK @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.36
Orebro SK @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.88 vs 2.36
Market price is 20.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.94 8.70
-1.50 3.84 6.45
-1.25 3.42 5.95
-1.00 3.04 5.45
-0.75 2.35 3.72
-0.25 1.82 2.58
0 1.56 2.29
+0.25 1.40 1.89
+0.75 1.20 1.47
+1.00 1.08 1.29
+1.25 1.07 1.23
+1.50 1.05 1.18

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.70 6.40
-1.25 3.45 6.00
-1.00 3.00 5.75
-0.75 2.38 3.80
-0.50 2.08 3.10
-0.25 1.82 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.98
+0.50 1.35 1.72
+0.75 1.25 1.55
+1.00 1.14 1.38
+1.25 1.12 1.30
+1.50 1.12 1.26

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.85 2.62
+0.25 1.45 1.90

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.95 8.70
-1.50 3.84 6.45
-1.25 3.42 5.95
-1.00 3.04 5.45
-0.75 2.35 3.72
-0.25 1.78 2.58
0 1.56 2.29
+0.25 1.40 1.85
+0.75 1.20 1.47
+1.00 1.08 1.29
+1.25 1.07 1.23
+1.50 1.05 1.18

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.50 3.88
-0.50 2.14 3.07
-0.25 1.88 2.71
0 1.60 2.33
+0.25 1.45 1.93
+0.50 1.36 1.70
+0.75 1.25 1.52
Primary Bets
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