Sandviken vs Orebro SK Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sandviken
Final Score
4 – 2
(HT 1-2)
Orebro SK
Kick-off 15:00 Stadium Jernvallens Arena

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sandviken opened at -0.25 against Orebro SK in the Superettan. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.69 / 1.79
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Sandviken -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Orebro SK than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Orebro SK +0.25
@ 2.67
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.71
Price Advantage
+56.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
+0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:03
Opening
-0.25
12:16
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
14:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.69 / 2.73 -0.25 1.88 / 2.44 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.86 / 2.79 -0.25 2.00 / 2.64 +0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.78 / 2.75 -0.25 2.00 / 2.42 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.73 / 2.73 -0.25 1.92 / 2.44 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 2.70 -0.25 1.82 / 2.67 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.72 / 2.81 -0.25 1.90 / 2.45 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.19 7.70
-1.50 4.05 5.80
-1.25 3.68 5.35
-1.00 3.28 4.95
-0.75 2.52 3.42
-0.25 1.92 2.44
0 1.64 2.14
+0.25 1.44 1.80
+0.75 1.23 1.41
+1.00 1.11 1.25
+1.25 1.09 1.20
+1.50 1.07 1.16
+1.75 1.03 1.09

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 5.90
-1.25 3.70 5.50
-1.00 3.45 4.80
-0.75 2.60 3.45
-0.50 2.20 2.75
-0.25 2.00 2.42
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.52 1.80
+0.50 1.42 1.65
+0.75 1.30 1.48
+1.00 1.18 1.30
+1.25 1.15 1.26
+1.50 1.13 1.22

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.90 2.45
0 1.63 2.10
+0.25 1.47 1.77

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.82 2.67
+0.25 1.44 1.93

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.20 7.70
-1.50 4.05 5.80
-1.25 3.68 5.35
-1.00 3.28 4.95
-0.75 2.52 3.42
-0.25 1.88 2.44
0 1.64 2.14
+0.25 1.44 1.76
+0.75 1.23 1.41
+1.00 1.11 1.25
+1.25 1.09 1.20
+1.50 1.07 1.16
+1.75 1.03 1.10

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.72 3.80
-0.50 2.30 3.03
-0.25 2.00 2.64
0 1.68 2.24
+0.25 1.50 1.86
+0.50 1.39 1.65
+0.75 1.28 1.48
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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