Oddevold vs IFK Varnamo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Oddevold
Sep 19, 2026 - 13:00
1.72 1.76
IFK Varnamo
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Oddevold opened at -0.25 against IFK Varnamo in the Superettan. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Oddevold -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward IFK Varnamo than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
IFK Varnamo +0.25
@ 2.83
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+61.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.77 / 2.65 -0.25 1.77 / 2.65 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.83 / 2.83 -0.25 1.83 / 2.83 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 -0.25 1.88 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet 0 1.56 / 2.22 -0.25 1.80 / 2.65 — -0.25
Betano -0.25 1.82 / 2.67 -0.25 1.85 / 2.57 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.81 / 2.62 -0.25 1.81 / 2.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
xG 1.72 / 1.76 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.83
Oddevold @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.34
Oddevold @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.83 vs 2.34
Market price is 21.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.89 9.00
-1.50 3.80 6.70
-1.25 3.34 6.20
-1.00 2.97 5.70
-0.75 2.33 3.84
-0.25 1.80 2.65
0 1.54 2.33
+0.25 1.38 1.91
+0.75 1.18 1.48
+1.00 1.08 1.30
+1.25 1.06 1.24
+1.50 1.05 1.19

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.80 6.60
-1.25 3.45 6.25
-1.00 3.10 5.75
-0.75 2.38 3.90
-0.50 2.08 3.10
-0.25 1.88 2.75
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.42 1.92
+0.50 1.35 1.72
+0.75 1.24 1.55
+1.00 1.14 1.35
+1.25 1.12 1.30
+1.50 1.11 1.25

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.81 2.62
0 1.55 2.25
+0.25 1.41 1.86

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.85 2.57
+0.25 1.47 1.88

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.90 9.00
-1.50 3.80 6.70
-1.25 3.34 6.20
-1.00 2.97 5.70
-0.75 2.33 3.84
-0.25 1.77 2.65
0 1.54 2.33
+0.25 1.38 1.87
+0.75 1.18 1.48
+1.00 1.08 1.30
+1.25 1.06 1.24
+1.50 1.05 1.19

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.45 4.07
-0.50 2.10 3.22
-0.25 1.83 2.83
0 1.56 2.42
+0.25 1.42 1.97
+0.50 1.33 1.72
+0.75 1.23 1.54
Primary Bets
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