Helsingborg vs Norrby IF Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Helsingborg
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Norrby IF
Kick-off 13:00 Stadium Olympia

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Helsingborg opened at -0.25 against Norrby IF in the Superettan. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.15
Helsingborg +0.15

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.66 / 1.82
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Helsingborg -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.40
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.40 AH points more toward Norrby IF than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Norrby IF +0.25
@ 2.84
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.40
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+70.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:08
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
12:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.75 / 2.58 -0.25 1.78 / 2.62 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.83 / 2.78 -0.25 1.89 / 2.84 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.85 / 2.68 -0.25 1.85 / 2.68 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 1.53 / 2.29 -0.25 1.82 / 2.62 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 1.85 / 2.57 -0.25 1.85 / 2.60 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.77 / 2.68 -0.25 1.79 / 2.68 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.74 8.00
-1.50 3.75 6.15
-1.25 3.34 5.74
-1.00 2.97 5.35
-0.75 2.35 3.70
-0.25 1.82 2.62
0 1.56 2.29
+0.25 1.39 1.89
+0.75 1.20 1.47
+1.00 1.09 1.30
+1.25 1.07 1.24
+1.50 1.06 1.19
+1.75 1.02 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.90 6.60
-1.25 3.55 6.00
-1.00 3.10 5.75
-0.75 2.42 3.80
-0.50 2.10 3.10
-0.25 1.85 2.68
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.45 1.95
+0.50 1.35 1.70
+0.75 1.25 1.52
+1.00 1.14 1.35
+1.25 1.12 1.27
+1.50 1.11 1.24

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.79 2.68
0 1.53 2.29
+0.25 1.39 1.88

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.85 2.60
+0.25 1.45 1.88

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.75 8.00
-1.50 3.75 6.15
-1.25 3.34 5.75
-1.00 2.97 5.35
-0.75 2.35 3.70
-0.25 1.78 2.62
0 1.56 2.29
+0.25 1.39 1.85
+0.75 1.20 1.47
+1.00 1.09 1.30
+1.25 1.07 1.24
+1.50 1.06 1.19
+1.75 1.02 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.56 4.15
-0.50 2.18 3.26
-0.25 1.89 2.84
0 1.59 2.41
+0.25 1.44 1.96
+0.50 1.35 1.71
+0.75 1.24 1.53
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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