Trygg/Lade vs Skeid Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Trygg/Lade
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Skeid
Kick-off 13:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Trygg/Lade opened at -0.25 against Skeid in the 2. Division - Group 2. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Skeid from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
Trygg/Lade +0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.18 / 1.42
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Trygg/Lade 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Skeid than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Skeid 0
@ 1.99
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+14.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:14
Opening
-0.25
12:09
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.49 / 1.77 -0.25 2.49 / 1.77 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.47 / 1.89 0 1.83 / 1.99 — +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.42 / 1.92 -0.25 2.42 / 1.92 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.45 / 1.87 0 1.80 / 1.90 — +0.25
BetVictor 0 2.13 / 1.61 0 1.83 / 1.84 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.40 7.40
-2.00 6.40 6.50
-1.50 4.00 4.05
-1.25 3.76 3.96
-1.00 3.40 3.45
-0.75 2.70 2.83
-0.25 2.07 2.17
0 1.80 1.90
+0.25 1.61 1.67
+0.75 1.36 1.40
+1.00 1.25 1.25
+1.25 1.19 1.21
+1.50 1.18 1.19
+2.00 1.07 1.07
+2.50 1.05 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 4.65
-1.50 5.50 3.70
-1.25 5.00 3.45
-1.00 4.50 3.10
-0.75 3.45 2.42
-0.50 2.75 2.15
-0.25 2.42 1.92
0 2.15 1.68
+0.25 1.88 1.52
+0.50 1.68 1.42
+0.75 1.52 1.30
+1.00 1.35 1.19
+1.25 1.30 1.17
+1.50 1.26 1.15
+1.75 1.18 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.12 2.13
0 1.83 1.84
+0.25 1.61 1.62

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.65 3.50
-1.25 5.25 3.14
-1.00 4.85 2.88
-0.75 3.48 2.28
-0.25 2.49 1.77
0 2.19 1.54
+0.25 1.85 1.42
+0.75 1.50 1.22
+1.00 1.35 1.11
+1.25 1.27 1.09
+1.50 1.22 1.08

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.71 2.99
-0.50 2.31 2.50
-0.25 2.08 2.25
0 1.83 1.99
+0.25 1.63 1.74
+0.50 1.50 1.58
+0.75 1.37 1.43
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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