Follo vs Rana Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Follo
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 0-0)
Rana
Kick-off 11:00 Stadium Langhus kunstgress

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Follo opened at -0.25 against Rana in the 2. Division - Group 2. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.26 / 1.34
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Follo -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward Rana than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Rana +0.25
@ 1.85
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+10.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
08:10
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
10:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.62 / 1.75 -0.25 2.62 / 1.75 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.62 / 1.85 -0.25 2.60 / 1.85 -0.25 0
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 0
1xBet -0.25 2.63 / 1.75 -0.25 2.63 / 1.75 -0.25 0
BetVictor 0 2.15 / 1.60 0 2.24 / 1.55 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.60 6.90
-2.00 7.20 6.05
-1.50 6.10 3.48
-1.25 5.70 3.14
-1.00 5.25 2.82
-0.75 3.72 2.31
-0.25 2.63 1.75
0 2.26 1.51
+0.25 1.88 1.38
+0.75 1.52 1.20
+1.00 1.36 1.09
+1.25 1.27 1.08
+1.50 1.22 1.06
+2.00 1.06 1.05

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.00 5.00
-1.50 4.65 3.90
-1.25 4.25 3.55
-1.00 3.90 3.30
-0.75 3.00 2.60
-0.50 2.50 2.25
-0.25 2.30 1.85
0 2.02 1.78
+0.25 1.95 1.60
+0.50 1.62 1.50
+0.75 1.48 1.38
+1.00 1.32 1.24
+1.25 1.27 1.21
+1.50 1.24 1.18
+1.75 1.17 1.12

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.24 1.55

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.10 3.48
-1.25 5.70 3.14
-1.00 5.25 2.82
-0.75 3.72 2.28
-0.25 2.62 1.75
0 2.26 1.51
+0.25 1.88 1.38
+0.75 1.50 1.20
+1.00 1.36 1.09
+1.25 1.27 1.08
+1.50 1.22 1.06

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.93 2.08
-0.25 2.60 1.85
0 2.29 1.59
+0.25 1.93 1.45
+0.50 1.71 1.36
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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