Egersund vs Sogndal Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Egersund
Oct 18, 2026 - 12:30
1.39 1.21
Sogndal
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Egersund opened at -0.25 against Sogndal in the 1. Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
Egersund -0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Egersund -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Sogndal than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sogndal +0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+41.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.74 / 2.52 -0.25 1.74 / 2.52 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.82 / 2.63 -0.25 1.82 / 2.63 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 2.68 -0.25 1.80 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.78 / 2.52 -0.25 1.78 / 2.52 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.76 / 2.56 -0.25 1.76 / 2.57 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
xG 1.39 / 1.21 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.82
Egersund @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.11
Egersund @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.82 vs 2.11
Market price is 13.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.15 9.90
-2.00 5.45 9.00
-1.75 4.04 7.37
-1.50 3.28 5.35
-1.25 2.97 4.95
-1.00 2.66 4.60
-0.75 2.21 3.34
-0.25 1.78 2.52
0 1.57 2.27
+0.25 1.42 1.94
+0.75 1.24 1.53
+1.00 1.13 1.37
+1.25 1.11 1.30
+1.50 1.09 1.25
+1.75 1.05 1.17
+2.00 1.02 1.08

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.45 5.75
-1.25 3.10 5.50
-1.00 2.75 4.80
-0.75 2.30 3.55
-0.50 2.02 3.00
-0.25 1.80 2.68
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.45 2.00
+0.50 1.38 1.78
+0.75 1.27 1.60
+1.00 1.18 1.42
+1.25 1.15 1.35
+1.50 1.14 1.30

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.76 2.57
0 1.54 2.27
+0.25 1.43 1.92

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 5.45 9.20
-1.75 4.05 6.85
-1.50 3.28 5.35
-1.25 2.97 4.95
-1.00 2.66 4.60
-0.75 2.21 3.34
-0.25 1.74 2.52
0 1.57 2.27
+0.25 1.42 1.90
+0.75 1.24 1.53
+1.00 1.13 1.37
+1.25 1.11 1.30
+1.50 1.09 1.25
+1.75 1.04 1.17

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.31 3.56
-0.50 2.03 2.93
-0.25 1.82 2.63
0 1.60 2.33
+0.25 1.48 1.99
+0.50 1.39 1.78
+0.75 1.28 1.60
Primary Bets
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