Moss vs Kongsvinger Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Moss
Oct 05, 2026 - 17:00
1.20 1.40
Kongsvinger
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Moss opened at -0.25 against Kongsvinger in the 1. Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
Moss +0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Moss -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.43
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.43 AH points more toward Kongsvinger than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Moss -0.25
@ 3.17
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.43
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.70
Price Advantage
+17.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.08 / 1.53 -0.25 3.08 / 1.53 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.17 / 1.62 -0.25 3.17 / 1.62 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.10 / 1.60 -0.25 3.10 / 1.60 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.08 / 1.53 -0.25 3.08 / 1.53 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
xG 1.20 / 1.40 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.17
Moss @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.70
Moss @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.17 vs 2.70
Market price is 17.4% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.95 2.66
-1.00 6.15 2.21
-0.75 4.35 1.88
-0.25 3.08 1.53
0 2.74 1.35
+0.25 2.21 1.28
+0.75 1.74 1.14
+1.00 1.60 1.06
+1.50 1.37 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 6.00 2.42
-1.00 5.75 2.25
-0.75 4.15 1.98
-0.50 3.45 1.78
-0.25 3.10 1.60
0 2.75 1.42
+0.25 2.30 1.35
+0.50 2.02 1.30
+0.75 1.82 1.22
+1.00 1.62 1.14
+1.25 1.52 1.12

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.95 2.66
-1.00 6.15 2.21
-0.75 4.35 1.89
-0.25 3.08 1.53
0 2.74 1.35
+0.25 2.21 1.28
+0.75 1.75 1.14
+1.00 1.60 1.06
+1.50 1.37 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.53 1.81
-0.25 3.17 1.62
0 2.81 1.43
+0.25 2.29 1.34
+0.50 2.00 1.29
Primary Bets
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