Djurgården W vs AIK W Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Djurgården W
Oct 04, 2026 - 12:00
2.78 2.33
AIK W
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.50
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Djurgården W opened at -0.25 against AIK W in the Damallsvenskan. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.43
Djurgården W -0.43

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Djurgården W -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Djurgården W than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Djurgården W -0.25
@ 2.86
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.87
Price Advantage
+52.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.38 / 1.86 -0.25 2.66 / 1.72 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.68 / 1.87 -0.50 3.04 / 2.01 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.60 / 1.90 -0.25 2.75 / 1.82 — 0
1xBet 0 2.05 / 1.66 -0.25 2.69 / 1.72 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.43
xG 2.78 / 2.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.66
Djurgården W @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.87
Djurgården W @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.66 vs 1.87
Market price is 42.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.30 3.50
-1.00 5.50 2.83
-0.75 3.80 2.26
-0.25 2.69 1.72
0 2.34 1.50
+0.25 1.91 1.38
+0.75 1.53 1.19
+1.00 1.33 1.08
+1.50 1.22 1.06

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 3.70
-1.25 6.00 3.45
-1.00 5.75 3.00
-0.75 3.80 2.38
-0.50 3.10 2.08
-0.25 2.75 1.82
0 2.35 1.58
+0.25 1.98 1.42
+0.50 1.72 1.35
+0.75 1.55 1.25
+1.00 1.38 1.14
+1.25 1.30 1.12
+1.50 1.26 1.12

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.30 3.50
-1.00 5.50 2.83
-0.75 3.80 2.24
-0.25 2.66 1.72
0 2.34 1.50
+0.25 1.91 1.37
+0.75 1.52 1.19
+1.00 1.33 1.08
+1.50 1.22 1.06

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.04 2.01
-0.25 2.86 1.75
0 2.48 1.49
+0.25 2.02 1.38
+0.50 1.79 1.34
Primary Bets
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