Start vs Ham-Kam Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Start
Oct 11, 2026 - 15:00
1.82 1.13
Ham-Kam
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Start opened at -0.25 against Ham-Kam in the Eliteserien. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.65
Start -0.65

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Start -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.40
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.40 AH points more toward Start than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Ham-Kam +0.25
@ 3.15
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.40
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.53
Price Advantage
+24.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.60 / 3.04 -0.25 1.60 / 3.04 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.72 / 3.15 -0.25 1.71 / 3.15 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 -0.25 1.68 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.68 / 3.04 -0.25 1.68 / 3.04 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.65
xG 1.82 / 1.13 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.71
Start @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.65
Start @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.71 vs 1.65
Market price is 3.6% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.20 7.90
-1.25 2.83 7.40
-1.00 2.49 6.85
-0.75 2.04 4.49
-0.25 1.68 3.04
0 1.45 2.81
+0.25 1.30 2.22
+0.75 1.13 1.63
+1.00 1.04 1.42
+1.25 1.03 1.33
+1.50 1.02 1.26

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.00 7.00
-1.00 2.60 6.60
-0.75 2.15 4.40
-0.50 1.92 3.55
-0.25 1.68 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.15
+0.50 1.27 1.88
+0.75 1.20 1.68
+1.00 1.11 1.48
+1.25 1.10 1.38

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.20 7.90
-1.25 2.83 7.40
-1.00 2.49 6.85
-0.75 2.04 4.50
-0.25 1.60 3.04
0 1.41 2.74
+0.25 1.30 2.12
+0.75 1.14 1.63
+1.00 1.04 1.42
+1.25 1.03 1.33
+1.50 1.02 1.26

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.95 3.57
-0.25 1.71 3.15
0 1.47 2.74
+0.25 1.37 2.19
+0.50 1.30 1.90
Primary Bets
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