AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

AIK Stockholm
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00 2H
2 1.84
5 1.13
IF Brommapojkarna
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

AIK Stockholm opened at -0.25 against IF Brommapojkarna in the Allsvenskan. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.67
AIK Stockholm -0.67

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
AIK Stockholm -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.42
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.42 AH points more toward AIK Stockholm than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
IF Brommapojkarna +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.42
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.56
Price Advantage
+21.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.59 / 2.99 -0.25 1.61 / 2.93 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.68 / 3.10 -0.25 1.68 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.62 / 2.99 -0.25 1.62 / 2.99 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.67
xG 1.84 / 1.13 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.61
AIK Stockholm @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.64
AIK Stockholm @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.61 vs 1.64
Market price is 1.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.78 9.00
-1.50 3.05 7.00
-1.25 2.74 6.60
-1.00 2.43 6.20
-0.75 2.01 4.24
-0.25 1.62 2.99
0 1.42 2.70
+0.25 1.31 2.18
+0.75 1.15 1.65
+1.00 1.06 1.44
+1.25 1.05 1.35
+1.50 1.04 1.28

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.60 6.60
-0.75 2.15 4.50
-0.50 1.90 3.55
-0.25 1.68 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.15
+0.50 1.27 1.90
+0.75 1.19 1.68
+1.00 1.11 1.48

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.82 8.80
-1.50 3.08 6.85
-1.25 2.78 6.45
-1.00 2.46 6.05
-0.75 2.04 4.20
-0.25 1.61 2.93
0 1.43 2.66
+0.25 1.32 2.10
+0.75 1.16 1.63
+1.00 1.06 1.43
+1.25 1.05 1.34
+1.50 1.04 1.28
Primary Bets
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