Halmstad vs AIK Stockholm Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Halmstad
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 0-0)
AIK Stockholm
Kick-off 12:00 Stadium Orjans Vall

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Halmstad opened at -0.25 against AIK Stockholm in the Allsvenskan. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.50 / 1.42
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Halmstad -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward AIK Stockholm than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Halmstad -0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.22
Price Advantage
+39.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:03
Opening
-0.25
08:06
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
11:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.74 / 1.70 -0.25 2.78 / 1.65 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.74 / 1.85 -0.25 3.05 / 1.75 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.80 -0.25 3.10 / 1.70 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 2.74 / 1.70 -0.25 2.78 / 1.65 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 2.80 / 1.80 -0.25 2.82 / 1.72 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.78 / 1.74 -0.25 2.77 / 1.67 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.55 3.22
-1.25 6.15 2.92
-1.00 5.75 2.70
-0.75 3.96 2.12
-0.25 2.78 1.65
0 2.43 1.44
+0.25 2.01 1.34
+0.75 1.58 1.17
+1.00 1.42 1.07
+1.25 1.31 1.06
+1.50 1.26 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 3.45
-1.25 7.00 3.10
-1.00 6.40 2.68
-0.75 4.40 2.25
-0.50 3.45 1.95
-0.25 3.10 1.70
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.10 1.35
+0.50 1.85 1.30
+0.75 1.62 1.20
+1.00 1.45 1.12
+1.25 1.35 1.10
+1.50 1.30 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.77 1.67
0 2.53 1.44
+0.25 2.04 1.37

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.82 1.72
+0.25 2.07 1.42

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.55 3.22
-1.25 6.15 2.93
-1.00 5.75 2.70
-0.75 3.96 2.13
-0.25 2.78 1.65
0 2.43 1.44
+0.25 2.01 1.34
+0.75 1.59 1.17
+1.00 1.42 1.07
+1.25 1.32 1.06
+1.50 1.26 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.08 2.27
-0.50 3.45 1.99
-0.25 3.05 1.75
0 2.66 1.51
+0.25 2.15 1.40
+0.50 1.88 1.33
+0.75 1.67 1.25
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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