AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

AIK Stockholm
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Mjallby AIF
Kick-off 17:00 Stadium Strawberry Arena

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

AIK Stockholm opened at -0.25 against Mjallby AIF in the Allsvenskan. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 7 valid books, with 71% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.31
AIK Stockholm +0.31

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.30 / 1.64
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
AIK Stockholm -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 7 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.56
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.56 AH points more toward Mjallby AIF than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Mjallby AIF +0.25
@ 2.57
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.56
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.53
Price Advantage
+68.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 7 valid books · 71% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:04
Opening
-0.25
16:03
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
16:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.82 / 2.57 -0.25 1.91 / 2.39 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.90 / 2.72 0 1.72 / 2.18 0 +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.60 -0.25 2.02 / 2.50 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.86 / 2.57 -0.25 1.95 / 2.39 -0.25 0
Unibet -0.50 2.12 / 2.80 -0.50 2.12 / 2.80 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.85 / 2.70 -0.25 1.98 / 2.47 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.83 / 2.59 -0.25 1.94 / 2.41 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.70 10.00
-1.75 5.69 8.95
-1.50 4.33 5.95
-1.25 3.92 5.45
-1.00 3.48 4.95
-0.75 2.60 3.43
-0.25 1.95 2.39
0 1.67 2.10
+0.25 1.47 1.78
+0.75 1.23 1.39
+1.00 1.11 1.22
+1.25 1.08 1.18
+1.50 1.07 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.08

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 5.90
-1.25 3.90 5.50
-1.00 3.45 5.00
-0.75 2.68 3.55
-0.50 2.30 2.85
-0.25 2.02 2.50
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.50 1.78
+0.50 1.40 1.60
+0.75 1.27 1.45
+1.00 1.17 1.30
+1.25 1.15 1.24
+1.50 1.13 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.94 2.41
0 1.65 2.07
+0.25 1.48 1.74

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.25 2.72
-0.25 1.98 2.47
+0.25 1.53 1.80
+0.50 1.44 1.62

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.70 8.00
-1.50 4.33 5.95
-1.25 3.92 5.45
-1.00 3.48 4.95
-0.75 2.60 3.44
-0.25 1.91 2.39
0 1.67 2.10
+0.25 1.47 1.74
+0.75 1.23 1.39
+1.00 1.11 1.22
+1.25 1.08 1.18
+1.50 1.07 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.08

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.79 3.69
-0.50 2.34 2.94
-0.25 2.04 2.57
0 1.72 2.18
+0.25 1.53 1.84
+0.50 1.42 1.64
+0.75 1.30 1.47

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.12 2.80
+0.50 1.36 1.61
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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