Union Omaha vs Spokane Velocity Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Union Omaha
Final Score
3 – 1
(HT 2-0)
Spokane Velocity
Kick-off 17:00 Stadium Werner Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Union Omaha opened at -0.25 against Spokane Velocity in the USL League One. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.23
Union Omaha -0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.43 / 1.17
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Union Omaha -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Spokane Velocity than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Spokane Velocity +0.25
@ 2.76
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.98
Price Advantage
+39.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
12:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
16:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.73 / 2.74 -0.25 1.73 / 2.74 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.85 / 2.66 -0.25 1.81 / 2.76 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.73 / 2.74 -0.25 1.73 / 2.74 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.60 / 2.33 -0.25 1.60 / 2.33 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.74 7.10
-1.25 3.38 6.55
-1.00 2.97 6.05
-0.75 2.30 4.00
-0.25 1.73 2.74
0 1.48 2.33
+0.25 1.35 1.90
+0.75 1.17 1.49
+1.00 1.06 1.32
+1.25 1.05 1.25
+1.50 1.04 1.19

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.60 2.33
0 1.40 2.06
+0.25 1.30 1.74

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.74 7.10
-1.25 3.34 6.55
-1.00 2.97 6.05
-0.75 2.30 4.00
-0.25 1.73 2.74
0 1.48 2.33
+0.25 1.35 1.90
+0.75 1.17 1.49
+1.00 1.06 1.32
+1.25 1.05 1.24
+1.50 1.04 1.19

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.05 3.12
-0.25 1.81 2.76
0 1.54 2.41
+0.25 1.40 1.98
+0.50 1.32 1.74
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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