Greenville Triumph vs Corpus Christi Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Greenville Triumph
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Corpus Christi
Kick-off 15:00 Stadium Paladin Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Greenville Triumph opened at -0.25 against Corpus Christi in the USL League One. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.31 / 1.29
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Greenville Triumph -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Corpus Christi than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Corpus Christi +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+71.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
12:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
14:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.69 / 2.78 -0.25 1.70 / 2.78 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.73 / 2.93 -0.25 1.75 / 2.89 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.70 / 2.78 -0.25 1.71 / 2.78 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.58 / 2.39 -0.25 1.54 / 2.39 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.64 8.80
-1.50 3.58 7.10
-1.25 3.20 6.64
-1.00 2.83 6.15
-0.75 2.24 4.09
-0.25 1.71 2.78
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.34 1.96
+0.75 1.16 1.52
+1.00 1.06 1.33
+1.25 1.05 1.26
+1.50 1.04 1.21

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.45 6.80
-1.25 3.00 6.40
-1.00 2.68 5.90
-0.75 2.20 4.15
-0.50 1.98 3.30
-0.25 1.72 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.08
+0.50 1.32 1.82
+0.75 1.22 1.65
+1.00 1.13 1.45
+1.25 1.12 1.38
+1.50 1.10 1.30

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.54 2.39
0 1.35 2.18
+0.25 1.28 1.81

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.65 8.80
-1.50 3.58 7.10
-1.25 3.20 6.65
-1.00 2.83 6.15
-0.75 2.24 4.10
-0.25 1.70 2.78
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.34 1.94
+0.75 1.16 1.52
+1.00 1.06 1.33
+1.25 1.05 1.26
+1.50 1.04 1.21

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.75 2.89
0 1.49 2.50
+0.25 1.37 2.03
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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